Unusual Atlantic hurricane season lull sparks new predictions from forecasters (2024)

An unusually long, quiet stretch of the Atlantic hurricane season has prompted some forecasters to downgrade their earlier predictions on how many storms they expect this year.

Despite the lower projections, however, forecasters are urging the public to remain on guard because they still anticipate more storms than average and as many as a half-dozen major hurricanes to form before the season ends on Nov. 30.

In what was widely predicted to be a highly active hurricane season — and possibly a record-breaking one — the Atlantic has spawned only five named storms so far.

But three of those (Beryl, Debby and Ernesto) strengthened into hurricanes, and one (Beryl) exploded into a monster Category 5 storm with top sustained winds as fierce as 165 mph.

Revised hurricane season forecasts

Before the season started, long-range forecasters from AccuWeather had predicted a blockbuster hurricane season, with a near-record number of storms forming in the Atlantic hurricane basin this year.

AccuWeather was expecting 20 to 25 named storms, with eight to 12 becoming hurricanes and four to seven turning into major hurricanes classified as Category 3 or stronger, with top sustained winds of 111 mph or higher.

In an updated forecast issued Tuesday, AccuWeather lowered its seasonal projections to 16 to 20 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes, and three to six major hurricanes — including the storms that already formed this season.

Forecasters from the Climate Prediction Center, affiliated with the National Water Service, also had predicted an above-average hurricane season in the Atlantic this year. They said 17 to 25 named storms may develop — far more than the 30-year average of 14 named storms.

In an update on Aug. 8, the Climate Prediction Center slightly lowered its prediction, to 17 to 24 named storms for the overall season. But it stuck to its initial prediction of eight to 13 hurricanes, and four to seven of those strengthening into major hurricanes.

Despite the recent lull in tropical activity, officials from NOAA, the agency that oversees the Climate Prediction Center, point out that the historical average date for the third hurricane of the year is Sept. 7, but this year the third hurricane — Ernesto — developed weeks earlier.

Hurricane experts at Colorado State University originally predicted 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes this season.

In July, the CSU forecast was pushed slightly higher, to 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes and six major hurricanes. On Aug. 6, the forecasters made a slight revision, calling for a total of 23 named storms, 12 hurricanes and six major hurricanes.

Blocking storms from forming

Even though most of the Atlantic hurricane basin — which includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico — continues to have very warm water to help fuel tropical storms, “an abundance of dry air, dust from the Sahara Desert and disruptive winds have hampered tropical development,” AccuWeather said this week.

“We’re also monitoring a large pocket of cold water off the western coast of Africa,” AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said, noting the cold water “is interfering with the showers and thunderstorms that commonly go on to become tropical storms and hurricanes.”

Despite those obstacles, many forecasters still expect the Atlantic hurricane season to start ramping up in the next few weeks.

Historically, the season sees an uptick in activity between the middle of August and late October, with Sept. 10 being the peak time for tropical storms or hurricanes to form in the Atlantic basin.

The past few weeks have been unusually quiet, with no named storms anywhere in the basin, but several tropical waves that have been monitored for potential development.

AccuWeather said this year’s Labor Day weekend was very rare, with no hurricanes or tropical storms brewing — the first time that’s happened since 1997.

In a post on the X, formerly Twitter, CSU hurricane expert Philip Klotzbach noted “the Atlantic has had no named storm formations since Ernesto on August 12. The last time that the Atlantic had no named storm formations between August 13 - September 3 was in 1968.”

5 areas being watched

There are some indications the Atlantic hurricane basin is starting to wake up.

As of Thursday morning, forecasters are monitoring five areas where clusters of rain showers and thunderstorms could potentially develop into organized tropical systems.

The chances of development, however, are all considered to be low.

The National Hurricane Center said one of those disturbances has a 30% chance of turning into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next seven days, two have a 20% chance, and two have a 10% chance.

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Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com or on X at @LensReality.